The big news out of the El Niño update for August is that the odds of a fall or winter event has dropped to 65% (from 80%). Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology even lowered their prediction to 50%. Several headlines I saw seemed to focus on that numerical change. Yes, 65% is indeed lower than 80%, but the odds still are pointing to a coming El Niño event. Plus, the odds remain about double that of any given year.
More importantly, the forecast is for a weak or moderate event (“a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages”). On the plus side, you can probably stash away your gold bullion and dehydrated food packets for the next apocalypse. But, there still are plenty weather-related crises to fret over: California drought, Detroit flooding, or Hawaii tropical cyclones.