Climate Prediction Center Updates El Niño Watch

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued April’s El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion a few days ago. There wasn’t much change to the text discussion, but the prediction for El Niño conditions increased from “about a 50% chance” to “exceeding 50%.” The simplest way to show the consensus is to compare the graphical summaries of the ENSO models for mid-Feb with mid-Mar.

Mid-Feb 2014 Plume of Model ENSO Predictions

Mid-Mar 2014 Plume of Model ENSO Predictions

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